Assuming that the US wins in Iraq and takes over (or liberates--whichever your preference), reconstructs the country after a period of benign US-led authoritarian governance, what do you think will become of Iraqi politics?

I'm no political scientist, but the choices you gave seem pretty straightforward:

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Iraq adopts a successful democratic system and becomes a stable country.

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Democracy

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Iraq adopts a democratic system that gets exploited by politicians eager to inflame ethnic and religious tension for politic advantage.

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Fascism

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Angered over the massive privatization of Iraqi interests, the Iraqi public revolts putting some kind of socialist/authoritarian style regime into power.

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Communism

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A country without a middle class and only natural resources as a source of wealth, Iraq keeps an authoritarian style government that is more or less stable.

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Monarchy or Oligarchy

I think there will be a democracy, although I think whether it is a stable country or not will depend on the rest of the middle east. After all, the only other democracy nearby is Israel. Not sure how excited any of those other countries are about the infiltration of this new-fangled political system.

Any country with an Islamic majority is going to institute Shiriyah(sic), Moslem law. These laws are so very extreme, i'm gonna go with Oligarchy.