quote:

Originally posted by Marvin Freestyle:

quote:

Originally posted by Boogerhead:
Belgrade is burning...

That's a shame. Couple of dozens of soccer hooligans think they are going to achieve something by breaking windows or setting buildings on fire ... giving everyone else over there a bad name.

Arkan and his soccer hooligans did quite a lot of changing.

quote:

Originally posted by M:

"In war, the first casualty is always truth"
Cyber Sputnik:
Normally I would care to reply in detail. But you seem to be someone who should know better.

What exactly are you refuting?

Anyone interested in accounts from on the ground during the Balkan conflict from 1991-1995 should look at the following books:

My War Gone by, I miss it So

War is a Force That Gives us Meaning

The Bridge Betrayed

Hearts Grown Brutal

Zlata's Diary

Natasha's Story

What do you all think will be the outcome here?

Outcome:

Kosovo without a viable economy remains dependent on the U.S. and E.U. to maintain its population with very little employment and trade.

Kosovo gets a seat at the table of the U.N. and case the U.S. will get itself a very reliable vote at the general assembly.

Kosovo invites the U.S. to set up a military base in its territory, which stimulates the local economy to some extent for as long as the U.S. is able to fund its vast collection of foreign bases.

Alternatively Kosovo merges with Albania and the K.L.A. hardliners start looking for the bits of 'Greater Albania' that happen to be inside Macedonia.

Two minor points:

quote:

Kosovo gets a seat at the table of the U.N.

UN membership is dependent on Security Council recommendation. China and Russia will veto membership as they will veto any change to Resolution 1244 that would make the independence declaration legal.

quote:

Kosovo invites the U.S. to set up a military base in its territory

It already has one, although according to the 'pede it's pretty much empty at the moment.

quote:

Originally posted by UberDog:
Arkan and his soccer hooligans did quite a lot of changing.

What does this mean? What are you trying to say? What does Arkan have to do with yesterdays events? The mane has been dead now for several years. He was one of the godfathers of Serbian criminal underground. All-around bad guy.

The guys that were in front of those embassies yesterday were wearing stripped red-white shirts (Soccer club Red Star Belgrade), stripped black-white shirts (Partizan) and you could spot a couple of supporters of another club called Rad.

Is there some hidden connection that I am not aware of, that you came across reading one of those books you mentioned?

quote:

Originally posted by Argyll Tamarin:
UN membership is dependent on Security Council recommendation. China and Russia will veto membership as they will veto any change to Resolution 1244 that would make the independence declaration legal.

That's what they are saying, I'm not sure they'll actually go through with it. This is not the first time Russia is announcing it'll veto something to support Serbia.

quote:

Originally posted by Marvin Freestyle:

quote:

Originally posted by UberDog:
Arkan and his soccer hooligans did quite a lot of changing.

What does this mean? What are you trying to say? What does Arkan have to do with yesterdays events? The mane has been dead now for several years. He was one of the godfathers of Serbian criminal underground. All-around bad guy.

The guys that were in front of those embassies yesterday were wearing stripped red-white shirts (Soccer club Red Star Belgrade), stripped black-white shirts (Partizan) and you could spot a couple of supporters of another club called Rad.

Is there some hidden connection that I am not aware of, that you came across reading one of those books you mentioned?

My point was that you shouldn't underestimate the efficacy of soccer hooligans in the region.

They have an impressive track record of getting things done in times of unrest.

That's all I am saying.

quote:

Originally posted by Witness:
Outcome:

Kosovo without a viable economy remains dependent on the U.S. and E.U. to maintain its population with very little employment and trade.

Kosovo gets a seat at the table of the U.N. and case the U.S. will get itself a very reliable vote at the general assembly.

Kosovo invites the U.S. to set up a military base in its territory, which stimulates the local economy to some extent for as long as the U.S. is able to fund its vast collection of foreign bases.

Alternatively Kosovo merges with Albania and the K.L.A. hardliners start looking for the bits of 'Greater Albania' that happen to be inside Macedonia.

Do you think there will be a "war?"

quote:

Originally posted by UberDog:
Do you think there will be a "war?"

My two cents:
I don't think there will be a "war". Not with Serbia anyways. Actually I hope so 'cause my brother is serving in the army right now. Hope he doesn't get dragged into all that crap.

On the other hand. Paramilitary formations such as KLA exist and operate on Macedonia's territory and supposedly in Montenegro as well.

Also, if Kosovo merges with Albania, what's to prevent Republika Srpska (in Bosnia) to declare independence and merge with Serbia? Same goes with the "Croatian part of Bosnia" and the merger with Croatia ...

Things can get bad real fast. Not only in Kosovo.

quote:

Originally posted by UberDog:

quote:

Originally posted by Witness:
Outcome:

Kosovo without a viable economy remains dependent on the U.S. and E.U. to maintain its population with very little employment and trade.

Kosovo gets a seat at the table of the U.N. and case the U.S. will get itself a very reliable vote at the general assembly.

Kosovo invites the U.S. to set up a military base in its territory, which stimulates the local economy to some extent for as long as the U.S. is able to fund its vast collection of foreign bases.

Alternatively Kosovo merges with Albania and the K.L.A. hardliners start looking for the bits of 'Greater Albania' that happen to be inside Macedonia.

Do you think there will be a "war?"

If there is one it'll probably be started within Kosovo and might possibly be an internal dispute.

From what I gather there are a large number of former independence fighters that have never re-integrated into civil society; some because the traumatic events they lived through make the transition difficult and others just because there haven't been any opportunities to embrace.

Add to that the many weapons floating around the region and it makes for a very flammable situation. If people who've only known violence don't see any alternatives then we can't rule out more of the same.

Throw the next generation into the mix growing up with no opportunities to seize advantage of, or even a functional status quo to contribute to and with easy access to weapons and things become even more disturbing.

Everything I've heard about Kosovo seems to show dependence on outsiders for survival. As I stated earlier, Kosovo doesn't have a viable economy and doesn't seem to show the makings of the imminent development of one. Even the very formation of their state only happened after the U.S. gave them their assurance that they'll be protected.

How humiliating is that? How long before the same nationalist pride that prompted the independence movement starts to blame their neighbours or their leaders for their pathetic situation?

One thing I really don't understand (and I guess that you can "give me a light" in that) is: what's the game in that region?

I mean, for what reason US and UK and some other countries are supporting Kosovo? International agencies report the region as problematic, neuralgic center for the distribution of heroine, with little population, little industry, little agriculture...

Do they have oil? Do they have other mineral reserves? Are they in the way of oil pipelines coming from east? Are their heroine mafias financing political campaigns in the Occident?

IMHO nobody is so stupid to friction East and West in order to give a chance to Russia resurrect as military nuclear power. Or to give grounds to China invest more in their war apparatus.

quote:

Originally posted by Marvin Freestyle:

quote:

Originally posted by UberDog:
Do you think there will be a "war?"

My two cents:
I don't think there will be a "war". Not with Serbia anyways. Actually I hope so 'cause my brother is serving in the army right now. Hope he doesn't get dragged into all that crap.

On the other hand. Paramilitary formations such as KLA exist and operate on Macedonia's territory and supposedly in Montenegro as well.

Also, if Kosovo merges with Albania, what's to prevent Republika Srpska (in Bosnia) to declare independence and merge with Serbia? Same goes with the "Croatian part of Bosnia" and the merger with Croatia ...

Things can get bad real fast. Not only in Kosovo.

If all that happens, we'd be back in 1991 again.

That wouldn't actually be surprising, but I don't think it will happen again... right now.

Then again, there is a fresh generation to slaughter, that seems to be what it takes. A fresh generation to sacrifice and one also to forget.

World War one had, what, a couple of generation before we got the sequel?

How long is a generation defined as anyway?

Humans are really fucking stupid creatures.

quote:

Originally posted by Witness:
From what I gather there are a large number of former independence fighters that have never re-integrated into civil society; some because the traumatic events they lived through make the transition difficult and others just because there haven't been any opportunities to embrace.

Add to that the many weapons floating around the region and it makes for a very flammable situation. If people who've only known violence don't see any alternatives then we can't rule out more of the same.

Throw the next generation into the mix growing up with no opportunities to seize advantage of, or even a functional status quo to contribute to and with easy access to weapons and things become even more disturbing.

I think the new generation will be the one to worry about. The old school would give them the propaganda to follow, but it's those fresh faces that will march off to war.

Be on the watch for another Radio Prijedor. (Sp?)

quote:

Originally posted by cbarreto:
One thing I really don't understand (and I guess that you can "give me a light" in that) is: what's the game in that region?

I mean, for what reason US and UK and some other countries are supporting Kosovo? International agencies report the region as problematic, neuralgic center for the distribution of heroine, with little population, little industry, little agriculture...

Do they have oil? Do they have other mineral reserves? Are they in the way of oil pipelines coming from east? Are their heroine mafias financing political campaigns in the Occident?

IMHO nobody is so stupid to friction East and West in order to give a chance to Russia resurrect as military nuclear power. Or to give grounds to China invest more in their war apparatus.

The US doesn't send armies there, not really, if we cared, we wouldn't have let the first conflict continue after Vukovar in 1991. The fact that we did nothing for 8 years shows how interested we are.

Why would Russia or China increase their military and militarism as a response to Kosovo?

This article is saying that 5000 protesters were rpesent, not 150,000 or 500,000, it make more sesne. Those other numbers are huge for a spontaneous event.

In the ethnically divided city of Mitrovica, Kosovo, long a flash point for violence between Albanians and Serbs, 5,000 Serbian demonstrators confronted United Nations police officers guarding a bridge leading to the Albanian side of the town on Friday. The police said no one was injured.

In the fifth day of demonstrations since Kosovo declared independence, the demonstrators waved flags, threw stones, bottles and firecrackers, and chanted, “Kosovo is ours.”

Washington and the United Nations Security Council sharply condemned the violence in Belgrade on Thursday, for which Serbia blamed “isolated vandals.”

One person died and more than 150 people were injured in the unrest, in which opponents of Kosovo’s independence set fire to the United States Embassy and attacked those belonging to Britain, Germany, Croatia, Belgium and Turkey. Several hundred protesters stormed the American Embassy. On Friday afternoon, it remained barricaded.

From the New York Times: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/23/world/europe/23kosovo...9947157a2&ei=5087%0A

quote:

Originally posted by cbarreto:
I mean, for what reason US and UK and some other countries are supporting Kosovo? International agencies report the region as problematic, neuralgic center for the distribution of heroine, with little population, little industry, little agriculture...

I think there a couple of possible of benefits that the U.S. and U.K. might perceive in it aside from any perception that it's a humanitarian effort.

I've heard a lot of talk about the U.S. trying to encircle Russia with military bases and missile defenses etc. and generally trying to strip the Russians of any power and influence that they have.

If they decide to play up how defenseless Kosovo is they have a ready excuse to enlarge the base they have there and make it a more permanent arrangement even if NATO decides to withdraw from the region once the new status quo settles down a bit.

As I understand it Kosovo has primarily a Muslim population. By setting themselves up as their protectors they would have something to point to when their detractors cite the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the aggression toward Iran and the unblinking defense of Israel to make the accusation that they are engaged in a holy war.

There's probably more reasons than those. But whatever the motivation I think it's going to blow up in someone's face if they don't find a way to get Kosovo up on their own feet in short order.

quote:

Originally posted by UberDog:
How long is a generation defined as anyway?

I looked it up in school and it was said to be 22 years, but it has always appeared to change depending on which country and time period you happened to be in.

Wikipedia says this about generations:

A generation has traditionally been defined as “the average interval of time between the birth of parents and the birth of their offspring."



And Russia and People's Republic don't need excuses to increase their defense spending. They just need to perceive it to be in their national interest.

If they believe that the Americans are using Kosovo as a way of undermining their power and influence that would be all the motivation they needed. Which is a real concern since the precedent established here could later be applied to parts of Russia and China that seek independence.

quote:

And Russia and People's Republic don't need excuses to increase their defense spending. They just need to perceive it to be in their national interest.

If they believe that the Americans are using Kosovo as a way of undermining their power and influence that would be all the motivation they needed. Which is a real concern since the precedent established here could later be applied to parts of Russia and China that seek independence.

Currently the blocks of power have changed. If US want to seek for National Security issues (the real ones) they need to go after EU and not Russia. China is still a concern: an independent nuclear power that is seeking to be an economic power and regional leader.

EU is moving towards being a Confederate state and is facing several strategic issues that put them, very clearly, as future opponents to US. They'll be competing for oil (the most evident issue now), for fresh water (a crescent concern) and for a whole set of strategic resources. Not to mention foreign markets.

Russia perceived that and, Putin though autocratic is not stupid. Russian leadership intends to move in the direction of EU and they know that as soon as some pending issues are settled, EU will be willing to accept Russia (oil, minerals, nuclear power, human resources and military industries).

That perception of confederation is present in EU population and the antagonism with US is getting clear too. Many literary works carry this feeling in a very explicit form: the way they portrait the decadence of US, drowned in a sea of military waste and economic inefficiency cannot be mistaken. Many people is concerned with the fact that while most EU countries are taking some measures to handle the global warming, US just don't give a dime to it (if people have money to purchase SUVs and pay taxes... well f**k the rest).

So, I still think that stimulating friction in the Balkans is not a very wise thing to do at the present moment, unless they're aiming to some strategic resource like oil...

Just to stress what I said in the last post, I think this link is of interest.