No one here will be surprised by any of this. Mayne only surprised that the powers that be actually see it happening and haven't rationalized it away yet.

The report argues that the "international system -- as constructed following the second World War -- will be almost unrecognizable by 2025 owing to the rise of emerging powers, a globalizing economy, an historic transfer of relative wealth and economic power from West to East, and the growing influence of nonstate actors."

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/11/20/global.trends.report/

I think the first country to figure out how to largely obviate oil for energy will be the dominant force in the second half on this century. Ironically, I also think that obviating that need will decrease the actual "power" of said country in much the way the internet threatens the power of those who created it for other ends.

The US has a lot of food and water which, as the article mentions, the report sees as major issues in 2025. if the US could eliminate the dependence on oil then the country would be in pretty good shape from a balance of trade.

The fucked up free market capitalism is another matter. I predict we'll go through this mid-life crisis for awhile longer before settling into our brand of European socialist democracy.

Tell you what I'd like to see though, a report from 1991 telling us what our current situation was supposed to look like.

Soviet troubles, likely.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: UberDog,

quote:

The bottom line, the report says, is that "the next 20 years of transition to a new system are fraught with risks."
"This is a story," it says, "with no clear outcome."

In other words, "We don't know what's going to happen in any detail"

quote:

Originally posted by UberDog:
Tell you what I'd like to see though, a report from 1991 telling us what our current situation was supposed to look like.

Soviet troubles, likely.

Absolutely. I think that it's fair to say that speculative fiction such as WG's does a better job at preparing us for the future than official, academic stuff such as this. It's certainly more enjoyable.

The idea that China will be the main player relative to us depends, I think, on a LOT of variables, many of them not friendly to long-term Chinese cohesion. The single most important factor regarding China, I believe, will be how aggressively and well they pursue environmentally stabilizing technology R&D.

If they take this challenge on well, they will be at least as dominant as we the USA, for whom the same factor will also be preeminent: how well we manage environmentally stabilizing technology R&D. We certainly have greater natural riches in terms of decent water and food production, but we also have greater capacity for complacency in that regard.

quote:

Originally posted by BK/DK:

quote:

The bottom line, the report says, is that "the next 20 years of transition to a new system are fraught with risks."
"This is a story," it says, "with no clear outcome."

In other words, "We don't know what's going to happen in any detail"

quote:

Originally posted by UberDog:
Tell you what I'd like to see though, a report from 1991 telling us what our current situation was supposed to look like.

Soviet troubles, likely.

Absolutely. I think that it's fair to say that speculative fiction such as WG's does a better job at preparing us for the future than official, academic stuff such as this. It's certainly more enjoyable.

I think that the report is "thematically' correct. That's about as prescient as the intel world, or any precogs really get. Nostradamus used to use the old Babylonian method of predicting the future: he would look to the past and project it onto the future.

That was a large part of his astrology, look back, find significant events and see where the stars were then see when that alignment would come again and stay vague, bingo, instant prophecy.

But seriously, for a website about a semi-prescient author, why aren't we talking about these sorts of things more?