World Economic Meltdown - Topic Powered by eve community

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Yup.

Political science.

Law.

Dentists (not really... I just fecken hate dentists)

Posts: 8705 | Location: Wyoming, USA | Registered: April 15, 2003

Ignored post by Trogdor posted

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Heard an interesting interview the other day on the radio with an economist (can't remember the name) who talked about the link between economic growth and democracy (in the real sense, not the 'what Bush is spreading' sense). His point was not so much about economic growth as measured in GDP, but about the majority of members of society feeling as though their standard of living is rising. His research had shown that when that is happening, socieies tend to get more democratic and free and safe. And vice versa. He noted that in the past decade the standard of living of the American middle class has been falling in real terms, and they no longer have that sense of growth. That feeling will only be exacerbated by this little hiccup. The wealthy will definitely get wealthier selling it short, but the middle class will lose big chunks of their perceived wealth in 401ks and properties (which have dropped something like 20% on average and much more in many areas). Definitely fucking worrying. Add that to the protofascist tendencies of someone like Giuliani and you have the makings of a perfect storm...

Or, you know, this could all turn around in three months and the Dow could be hitting new highs by April...

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Posts: 12239 | Location: all up in ur netwurx | Registered: January 11, 2003

Ignored post by Bravus posted

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Posted

quote:
Originally posted by Bravus:
Heard an interesting interview the other day on the radio with an economist (can't remember the name) who talked about the link between economic growth and democracy (in the real sense, not the 'what Bush is spreading' sense). His point was not so much about economic growth as measured in GDP, but about the majority of members of society feeling as though their standard of living is rising. His research had shown that when that is happening, socieies tend to get more democratic and free and safe. And vice versa. He noted that in the past decade the standard of living of the American middle class has been falling in real terms, and they no longer have that sense of growth. That feeling will only be exacerbated by this little hiccup. The wealthy will definitely get wealthier selling it short, but the middle class will lose big chunks of their perceived wealth in 401ks and properties (which have dropped something like 20% on average and much more in many areas). Definitely fucking worrying. Add that to the protofascist tendencies of someone like Giuliani and you have the makings of a perfect storm...

Or, you know, this could all turn around in three months and the Dow could be hitting new highs by April...

It could, I guess. Unlikely. Too much potential energy wound up in this one. That rock has been pushed way up onto the hill. Lose hold of it and I don't think we'll stop it soon.

I just hope Australians don't blame it on their new leadership. Our elections here in the states are far enough away that that probably won't happen here.

Posts: 8705 | Location: Wyoming, USA | Registered: April 15, 2003

Ignored post by Trogdor posted

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Posted

Guy watching his fortune evaporate tonight

Looks like he was leveraged into DOW futures.

WARNING: Contains the word "fuck". About 300 times and in various configurations, noun, verb, adjective, pronoun.

Posts: 8705 | Location: Wyoming, USA | Registered: April 15, 2003

Ignored post by Trogdor posted

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Posted

I remember back to the crash of '87. I was listening to Dr. Demento about three nights later and there were these four fellows singing,

I used to be a hippie

Then I was a stock broker

Now I am a hippie again

Posts: 8705 | Location: Wyoming, USA | Registered: April 15, 2003

Ignored post by Trogdor posted

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Posted

Yup. Eurpo markets opened gapped down more than 200 points (over 3%).

Here are the rules for trading halts at the NYSE later this morning.

quote:
Basically, NYSE triggers for trading halts at down 10%, down 20% and down 30% on DJIA.

For first quarter, 10% decline trigger is 1,350 points on DJIA.

The halt for a 10% decline would be one hour if it occurred before 2 p.m., and for 30 minutes if it occurred between 2 and 2:30, but would not halt trading at all after 2:30. The halt for a 20% decline would be two hours if it occurred before 1 p.m., and between 1 p.m. and 2 p.m. for one hour, and close the market for the rest of the day after 2 p.m. If the market declined by 30%, at any time, trading would be halted for the remainder of the day.

-- stolen from Science First on DKos

Don't know if any of them will kick in. Even 10% is pretty damned severe.. and AWFUL lot of money going poof.

Posts: 8705 | Location: Wyoming, USA | Registered: April 15, 2003

Ignored post by Trogdor posted

Witness

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Posted

quote:
Originally posted by Trogdor:

I just hope Australians don't blame it on their new leadership. Our elections here in the states are far enough away that that probably won't happen here.

Don't worry, we will. As I recall the last election that the Caudillo Howard won they seemed to make massive gains with the "If Labor gets in interest rates will go through the roof."

This is after we already knew that the majority of Australians (at least according the polls) were against entering Iraq when we did it, and despite the guys from the Reserve Bank (I think, although Bravus or someone smarter than me could probably tell me otherwise) that it was bullshit and the government had very little to do with it.

Three years from now whoever happens to be in charge of the Liberals will run on... "See? We told you Labor would fuck the economy!" and we'll go rushing over in droves so they can sell off more of our national assets in the endless pursuit of privatisation.

Although if Rudd and co. are seen to really be going after the problem early enough we might be able to avoid such shortsighted idiocy.

Lithos made me do it

Posts: 643 | Location: Cronulla, Australia | Registered: January 08, 2005

Ignored post by Witness posted

ArkanGL

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Posted

My boss told me of a friend of his, who sold all his shares last month, and bought gold instead.
His gold took 20%.

Now, he's an even richer fuck than he was.

Let's hope the Euro/Yen becomes ends up being even more favorable before I fly over (two more months...).
Or rather : let me hope

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Posts: 19231 | Location: Republic of Heaven | Registered: March 10, 2003

Ignored post by ArkanGL posted

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That's nice. Eurpo's recovering a little for the moment. Ima going to bed.

Yall in daylight keep a bind on this fucker.

Don't let it shit the bed like yesterday.

The world depends upon you (to get everyone out of the mess we've put them in).

Posts: 8705 | Location: Wyoming, USA | Registered: April 15, 2003

Ignored post by Trogdor posted

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Posted

Well, London is recovering a little. Frankfurt still doesn't believe a word of it.

Smart, them Germans.

Posts: 8705 | Location: Wyoming, USA | Registered: April 15, 2003

Ignored post by Trogdor posted

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Posted

Nope.

Headfake.

Headed back down. Dammit, Arkan!

Come on! Pull!

Posts: 8705 | Location: Wyoming, USA | Registered: April 15, 2003

Ignored post by Trogdor posted

ArkanGL

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Posted

Sorry about that.

It's just that I don't have any work today...

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Posts: 19231 | Location: Republic of Heaven | Registered: March 10, 2003

Ignored post by ArkanGL posted

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So I'll be staying up all night tonight while the US market is open, trying to find excellent short opportunities to cover my already open long positions. There's a pretty decent chance I can break even or even make money on the night, but it's still gonna be nerve-wracking as hell.

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Posts: 12239 | Location: all up in ur netwurx | Registered: January 11, 2003

Ignored post by Bravus posted

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Interesting: as of now, 3 hours before the markets open, the futures are actually neutral to slightly positive.

Won't all the world markets feel embarassed if they dropped massively because of the American market and the American market rises?

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Posts: 12239 | Location: all up in ur netwurx | Registered: January 11, 2003

Ignored post by Bravus posted

Gromit

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Posted

If I had any spare cash (which I don't) I'd be buying blue-chip stocks while they're cheap, and hanging onto them.

-----------------------------
"It may be said with rough accuracy that there are three stages in the life of a strong people. First, it is a small power, and fights small powers. Then it is a great power, and fights great powers. Then it is a great power, and fights small powers, but pretends that they are great powers, in order to rekindle the ashes of its ancient emotion and vanity. After that, the next step is to become a small power itself."
--GK Chesterton, "Heretics"

Posts: 7482 | Location: Melbourne, Australia | Registered: February 02, 2003

Ignored post by Gromit posted

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Yeah, absolutement - anyone got a spare 50 grand or so lying around?

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Posts: 12239 | Location: all up in ur netwurx | Registered: January 11, 2003

Ignored post by Bravus posted

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Posted

quote:
Originally posted by Bravus:
So I'll be staying up all night tonight while the US market is open, trying to find excellent short opportunities to cover my already open long positions. There's a pretty decent chance I can break even or even make money on the night, but it's still gonna be nerve-wracking as hell.

Up to let a beagle go outside. Bravus, shorts are the riskiest thing ever. There's no limit to how much you can lose, technically. If you mean a short fund, where it's spread out and managed... maybe. My financial guy drops people who want to short. Says he can't bear to watch.

He sent me an email tonight saying to ease out of stocks altogether (with the exception of a natural gas stock I've owned since it was tiny) for the next 14 months and into 6 or 8 of the better (by rep) hedge funds. I'm going to do that because this guy is always right. And I'm not even certain what hedge funds are.

He says not to view the lows in the next 14 months as buying opportunities, but the blips up as opportunities to sell.

I don't have much at stake, really, because of the times I didn't listen to this guy and lost my ass.

Evidently, some of those hedge funds do short stocks, but it's all a controlled thing they do with internal rules to stop loss and shit.

Eurpo looks to have recovered, anyways.

So far.

Posts: 8705 | Location: Wyoming, USA | Registered: April 15, 2003

Ignored post by Trogdor posted

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Oh, I do them very carefully, with strong money management rules in place. Stop losses ensure that (unless the market gaps massively) the most I can possibly lose is 50% on any one investment, and no single investment is more than 10% of my whole portfolio. It can still lead to losses, of course, but they're managed and if I get it right more often than wrong, and win more often than lose, it allows me to make money as the market goes down as well as when it goes up.

Guess we'll see how I feel tomorrow morning, and in 3, 6, 12 and 24 months...

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Posts: 12239 | Location: all up in ur netwurx | Registered: January 11, 2003

Ignored post by Bravus posted

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And looks like I can't afford to get into a hedge fund. There's minimums.

So I'm going to CDs over the next month, and I've got some room to invest in my little business.

Posts: 8705 | Location: Wyoming, USA | Registered: April 15, 2003

Ignored post by Trogdor posted

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... and I won't be entering any until after the first half hour or so tonight, just to avoid big gaps. I will be looking to get out of one or more of my long positions if conditions allow...

Still patchy as at the moment.

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Posts: 12239 | Location: all up in ur netwurx | Registered: January 11, 2003

Ignored post by Bravus posted