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Picture of UberDog
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quote:
Originally posted by Bravus:
The old British guys actually did a really nice job of describing it, but here's the version for the attention-span-challenged. Wink

Here's what the US banking system has been doing, leading to a massive bubble in both housing and the stock market:

1. Give home loans to anybody who wants them without checking their capacity to pay, on property with insanely inflated valuations. Make the introductory interest rates tiny so they can pay them, but then have the interest rates 'reset' to exhorbitant and unaffordable in a couple of years.

2. Take all this extremely risky and bad quality debt and bundle it up. Sell it on to investors as though it was really good quality, low risk debt. They will reap large rewards while thinking they have low risk.

3. Rinse and repeat.

It all works, in a Rube Goldberg sort of fashion, until (as the old British guys said) some fool asks how much the properties are really worth - or until the interest rates reset and millions of people start defaulting on their mortgages and being foreclosed. Then the whole thing falls over. The banks discover it was all high risk debt and is now basically worthless, and start writing off hundreds of billions of dollars worth of investments.

And hello global credit crunch and meltdown - because all the cheap credit that came from this practice (exacerbated by Greenspan keeping US interest rates too low for too long) dries up and borrowing gets much more expensive. And the money for mergers and acquisitions dries up.

At the same time oil spikes to over $100 a barrel (not unrelated to Bush's Big Middle East Adventure) which also slows the economy and spikes inflation.

(sorry, not sure how short this is!)
It's fine. I used to sell homes so I know about the crisis, I thought I had missed a new major article that had prompted Trogdor to make the thread.


Or that the Web Bot Project had predicited a global depression. Smile


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"I knew their tastes were very different and because the french like Dick a lot." -W.G.
 
Posts: 8885 | Location: A grue's belly. | Registered: February 20, 2003Edit or Delete MessageReport This Post
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Picture of UberDog
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quote:
Originally posted by Trogdor:
quote:
Why is the world going into an economic meltdown that will kill hundreds of thousands?


Bravus handled the reason for the meltdown perfectly.

Now... why is that going to kill hundreds of thousands? Poverty. Greatest killer in the modern age. War. We need oil, you have oil. Fucking give it here. War and poverty form a feedback loop. One of the outputs of that feedback loop is disease. Another is environmental ruin.

Costs money to live on a safe, clean, peaceful comfortable planet.

And this planet is out of money.
No, I don't disagree, I just wanted to see if it was based on more then the Eton gents. Though I am wary of any prediction man makes about economics.

Which isn't to say said predictions will not manifest but merely that, the business of predicting economic changes and their fallout is dicey.


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"I knew their tastes were very different and because the french like Dick a lot." -W.G.
 
Posts: 8885 | Location: A grue's belly. | Registered: February 20, 2003Edit or Delete MessageReport This Post
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Picture of UberDog
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quote:
Originally posted by Trogdor:
quote:
Originally posted by BlueShift:
Prophets, demagogues and other shit-stirrers, mostly. Wink


They should have degrees for that.

They probably do.
I have one.


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"I knew their tastes were very different and because the french like Dick a lot." -W.G.
 
Posts: 8885 | Location: A grue's belly. | Registered: February 20, 2003Edit or Delete MessageReport This Post
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Sold my AEO for a 6% gain, which is better than nothing. Can't see retail staying up for the near term. May buy back in again if it drops to like 17.
 
Posts: 3747 | Location: Mountain View,CA,USA | Registered: September 30, 2003Edit or Delete MessageReport This Post
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Today's Let's State the Obvious award goes to this guy, quoted in the New York Times:

quote:
“The market has this out-of-control feeling, and until the market sees some semblance of stability, it’s going to continue to be very volatile,” said Richard Sparks, senior equities analyst at Schaffer’s Investment Research.


_____________________________________
::swoon::
 
Posts: 3847 | Location: Vancouver, BC | Registered: August 05, 2007Edit or Delete MessageReport This Post
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Stimulus Plan Would Help Banks, Homebuilders Most

Subtitle: Companies struggling after years of healthy profits may get tax refund

You dirty rotten traitorous facsist political pricks. Reward the people who caused the problem so they can cause more problems.

Makes me feel like I need to vomit.

My disgust isn't because I'm a fiscal liberal. In fact, I agree with those who say that most of this legislated stimulus should be in the form of lower corporate taxes. Corporate taxes in the USA are too high. You cut them by 25%, you really do encourage investment (internal and from overseas) and IMEDIATELY create jobs. It is applied to all business sectors evenly and it is exactly the right thing to do. Extend unemployment benefits along with that, to give it time to work, as there are a lot of people who need it... right now.

But don't pay the god damned BANKS and HOMEBUILDERS for driving our economy into the gutter!

This GREAT idea is supported by our Cretin In Chief, as well as by our Congress... Republicans AND Democrats! Leave it to our government to not feel content in doing the wrong thing. They have to do EXACTLY the wrong thing.

Drag the motherfuckers out in the street and remove their heads. They're traitors.
 
Posts: 8738 | Location: Wyoming, USA | Registered: April 15, 2003Edit or Delete MessageReport This Post
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Meh, I got up at 4 am my time to check the market and it was down as hell and I was gonna have to actually take some losses for the first time. Went back to bed, and woke up to a 600 point turnaround and a lot happier mood. Though if I'd been able to hang onto the stuff I had to sell yesterday I'd have more profits today. Ah well, you don't go broke by making even small amounts of money, and avoiding losing any in this market feels like an achievement.


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differently mediated
 
Posts: 12344 | Location: all up in ur netwurx | Registered: January 11, 2003Edit or Delete MessageReport This Post
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Picture of Trogdor
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Better to walk than ride a murderous horse.
 
Posts: 8738 | Location: Wyoming, USA | Registered: April 15, 2003Edit or Delete MessageReport This Post
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quote:
This GREAT idea is supported by our Cretin In Chief, as well as by our Congress... Republicans AND Democrats! Leave it to our government to not feel content in doing the wrong thing. They have to do EXACTLY the wrong thing.


you reckon there are a few campaign coffers nice and full now?
 
Posts: 542 | Registered: December 17, 2007Edit or Delete MessageReport This Post
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quote:
Better to walk than ride a murderous horse.

deary me, trog!

 
Posts: 542 | Registered: December 17, 2007Edit or Delete MessageReport This Post
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Picture of TwiliteMinotaur
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*Sharpens horns*

Who's up for a gory bull run through DC?


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Twilite Minotaur Productions

The Hawaiian half of Minobot!
 
Posts: 3626 | Location: Honolulu Hawaii | Registered: July 06, 2006Edit or Delete MessageReport This Post
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'ere you go, Troggie.


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Drop a house on her from orbit. It's the only way to be sure.
 
Posts: 5257 | Location: Sydney, Australia | Registered: June 04, 2003Edit or Delete MessageReport This Post
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Picture of Trogdor
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quote:
Originally posted by m!sty:
quote:
This GREAT idea is supported by our Cretin In Chief, as well as by our Congress... Republicans AND Democrats! Leave it to our government to not feel content in doing the wrong thing. They have to do EXACTLY the wrong thing.


you reckon there are a few campaign coffers nice and full now?


Yup. Retirement strategy.
 
Posts: 8738 | Location: Wyoming, USA | Registered: April 15, 2003Edit or Delete MessageReport This Post
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Picture of herr kuchen
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I can see chaos theory - the nuances, the crescendos, the beautiful lulls - so I made a killing the last few days.


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Peter Kurt Russell Clarke Gable Windows XP
 
Posts: 3478 | Location: Portland | Registered: June 30, 2003Edit or Delete MessageReport This Post
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Posts: 542 | Registered: December 17, 2007Edit or Delete MessageReport This Post
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Picture of herr kuchen
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Oui, vous avez découvert ma honte secrète.


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Peter Kurt Russell Clarke Gable Windows XP
 
Posts: 3478 | Location: Portland | Registered: June 30, 2003Edit or Delete MessageReport This Post
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ooh la la mon ami!
 
Posts: 542 | Registered: December 17, 2007Edit or Delete MessageReport This Post
Vec
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Picture of Vec
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Don't know if this has been posted yet. Pretty new since it just went up on the site yesterday. Here's my synopsis:

"Fuckfuckfuckfuckfuckfuckfuckfuckfuckfuckfuck."


__________________________________
"I wouldn't be so cynical if you weren't so #@&%ing stupid." - Bill Maher

For Great Justice.
 
Posts: 2137 | Location: In Situ | Registered: April 05, 2004Edit or Delete MessageReport This Post
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Well this should help everything settle down, right?

Société Générale uncovers £3.7bn fraud by rogue trader
 
Posts: 377 | Location: Chicago, Il | Registered: June 13, 2003Edit or Delete MessageReport This Post
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Picture of cb4(r2)3t0
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quote:
Well this should help everything settle down, right?

Société Générale uncovers £3.7bn fraud by rogue trader


Well, when you let a 31 years old boy freely decide about £3.7bn either you're a complete asshole or you're in the plot. I guess senior people in SocGen is in the plot.

Here in Brazil the Federal Police (FBA like...) uncovered a scheme that sent about US$24bn to fiscal paradises through a state bank (BANESTADO). In the end only two persons served some time in jail... The US$24bn never came back to Brazil.

In the 60ies DeGaule said that "Brazil is not a serious country". After all those scandals, well... I think the world is much less serious than DeGaule imagined at his time Big Grin


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Why oh why didn't I take the blue pill ???
 
Posts: 828 | Location: Brazil | Registered: June 13, 2007Edit or Delete MessageReport This Post
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