William Gibson Books www.williamgibsonboard.com www.williamgibsonboard.com News of the day & Current Issues The Presently Occurring Economic Collapse .
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I know, I was referring to the rest of the universe.
Into the gutter...  Minobot 4evar | |||
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I don't know, eschatological musings such as this are always popular, but the world persists. I am not at all sure it is any worse than it ever was. I am not even sure it is all that different. It might be different. I hope it is, but I do not think it is worse than it is most of the time for most people on the planet. | |||
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Oh, in idle philosophical musing-in-your-head world, I don't know. I was referring to a specific and consequential piece of actual reality, namely that the boost in the stock market is yet another temporary sucker's rally, and that we're going to continue downhill for some time economically. We're going to see many more jobs lost, home prices down at least another 15%, with the worst recession in 50 years that is the result of the bursting of a decades-long credit bubble that's not going to bottom out till (at the earliest) the end of 2009, possibly later, depending on how long we continue tossing money into the opaque hands of Hanky Panky Paulson and friends' bank takeovers and bonuses, failing to address the systemic problems. Minobot 4evar | |||
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I dunno. I mean calling the bottom on the market is the game these days. Even I got most of my money out of the stock market when I could break even. There are a lot of people sitting on stock money dieing to buy when everything's cheap...and when that heard starts rolling it'll be a stampede.All we need is a bottom, I think the dow at 85 is realistic, and the 75's have just been a blip. My guess is that a month after obama takes power we'll see the dow at 95 and things will start going up really fast. the primacy of the written word. | |||
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Yeah, and the sharks mop up all the people who keep trying to call it without anything more than hunch. You've got to remember, the real repercussions of the financial crisis on the real economy have not been priced in yet. Home prices have fallen 30% from the peak and continue descent meaning a negative wealth effect of over $500 billion loss of consumer spending. The latest unemployment report was a surprise on the negative with the largest job losses since '74 with no sign of letting up. Couple the job losses with the fact that mortgage rates are about to reset for 09 and take a wild guess. The fed has cut rates down to functional-zero and still there is lack of lender confidence with falling asset prices and a liquidity trap similar to Japan's is looming. And let's not forget, the automakers are not out of the woods yet, even if they get the 15 billion. Everyone from the World Bank to most prominent economists see at the minimum a severe recession continuing through next year, at worst, a Japan-like protracted stagnation. And even when stocks do bottom out, historically speaking the recession pain would continue another six months. Even Obama admits things are going to get worse before they get any better. And when growth does return, it will never be at the insane and false rates it has been in the past, if it is to be sustainable and not just another credit bubble-bust leaving everyone worse off than before.This message has been edited. Last edited by: TwiliteMinotaur, Minobot 4evar | |||
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I may be showing my age here but do you remember the dot com boom? Sure it wasn't oil, or real estate, and the dow didn't do much but the NASDAQ! holy moly that thing was at least as out of line as things are today. My little web company did contracts in 2000 for say $50,000 of work that I'm sure the customers didn't even look at. Money was just flying at the wall, and if it stuck... So are we really going through a recession or is this just a natural part of changing administrations in the states? If you spent the last 8 years making millions in oil, you will have pulled that money out and put it in the bank now, you're just sitting on it. But make no mistake about it, the big profits are from buying low, so the trigger finger will be itching. But if not oil where do you put it? Web plays? nah, I think the next boom will be bio tech and alternative energy. Obama's law changes will see to that. Eventually they're probably going to be just as over-heated, and over-hyped, as Bush's boom, and Clinton's... and those who get in early will make the most. I wonder if people who did well in the last 2 8 year boom and bust cycles will sell at the end of obama no matter what? Or is there really something that has to go wrong with the economy? is there really anything wrong right now? Yes, even if bush was in for 8 more years that line of reasoning is finished, and the same during the dot com boom... it had reached it's logical conclusion. so buy low and sell high in 2015 FWIW the primacy of the written word. | |||
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That depends on what you mean by "wrong". For the bankers, profiteers and sharks as a whole, this is great. You get to run away from the burning building with 500 million into the revolving door of government as Treasury Secretary. Yes, if the systemic problems that allowed the credit bubble fraud/theft that has been labeled the "prosperity" of the past decade give or take are not remedied, then we'll get more of this leeching and havoc while most Americans continue to see things getting worse for them. Technically we've been in a recession since at least 2000 or so if you don't count debt growth. But no, that's "wealth" according to Mr. Greenspan. *rolleyes* I certainly hope Obama and all of us collectively can manage to create actual, sustainable, sane economic growth, for a change. Minobot 4evar | |||
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the primacy of the written word. | |||
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Easiest loan application FUCKING EVAR!!!!! We're so fucked! Zero transparency, and the assholes that got these loans STILL OWN FLEETS(!) OF CORPORATE JETS!!!!!!!!!!!! May the empire fall, hard. "...but I like a placebo," | |||
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Mhm, it's a joke, always has been. Funny man, Paulson. Minobot 4evar | |||
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I'm kind of losing hope in that one. But hey, some well-informed folks claim that the hype should not be believed, and that this is only the beginning. We'll see. _____________________________ Albert's path is a strange and difficult one. | |||
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I agree whole heatedly with this. You teach computer learnings to kids, right? | |||
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The Empire Never Ended, Boog:  | |||
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I'm thinking it's time we removed "impending" from this thread's title? | |||
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Done. "...but I like a placebo," | |||
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Teach me to ask for what I want. | |||
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We can probably delete "s last superpower" from the title also, as it looks like we're all in the same boat. | |||
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That's the primary problem with America (and many Americans) they honestly believe they have their own special (as in divine) boat on which to escape hence the Kyoto Treaty fiasco. _________________________________________________________________________________________ elecktrik dragon say: when you take hydra too seriously, the fire that burns you forms from your own mind. שויתי יהוה לנגדי תמיד | |||
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William Gibson Books www.williamgibsonboard.com www.williamgibsonboard.com News of the day & Current Issues The Presently Occurring Economic Collapse .
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